Defining College Football Blue Bloods with Data Science

By applying data science, we aim to create a universally accepted methodology that is updated weekly as games are played. This way, the understanding and ranking of “blue blood” programs will evolve with the sport, reflecting the dynamic nature of college football.

Methodology

To identify and rank blue blood programs, we selected a comprehensive set of data points that capture both historical success and recent performance. These data points include:

• Total Bowl Games
• Bowl Game Record Percentage
• Total Conference Championships
• Total National Titles
• All-Time Record (Wins and Percentage)
• Total All-Americans
• Total Heisman Winners
• Total NFL Draft Picks
• Weeks in Poll
• Last 5, 10, and 20 Year Records (Wins and Percentages)

We collected data from our database here at College Pigskin and applied weights to each data point to create a composite score for each program. This approach ensures that our rankings reflect a balance of historical achievements and current success.

Criteria and Weights

The criteria for defining a blue blood program were selected based on their relevance and importance in college football. While the exact weights assigned to each criterion are managed in our database, the process involves a careful consideration of each program’s achievements. The weighting system allows us to balance the significance of historical accomplishments with the impact of recent performance.

Data Processing and Analysis

To ensure comparability, we normalized each data point on a 0-1 scale. This normalization process allowed us to calculate a composite score for each program by applying the weights to the normalized data points. Meaning the highest score possible is a 1.000 and the lowest score possible is a 0.000. Based on their composite scores, programs were categorized into tiers: S Tier (Top 10%), A Tier (Top 30%), B Tier (Top 60%), and C Tier.

Results

Our analysis revealed some interesting insights about the current state of college football, and what programs would currently be considered "blue bloods". The S Tier, representing the elite of the elite, includes programs that have consistently demonstrated excellence across multiple dimensions of success and rank in the top 10% of all programs. Here is how it shook out:

1. Alabama - 0.999: Anchored by a ridiculous 127-14 record over the last 10 years, including 3 national championships. Had Georgia not gone on their insane run over the last 5 years, Bama may have had a perfect 1.000.
2. Ohio State - 0.920: Boasting a 115-15 record over the last 10 years including 1 national championship, plus a consistent pipeline of NFL draft picks (489) and 7 Heisman trophies.
3. Michigan - 0.899: The historical leader in all-time program wins with 1004, and a 51-11 record over the last 5 years including the national championship last season.
4. Oklahoma - 0.880: A model of consistency among the elite in college football, along with 3 Heisman Trophy winners in the last 10 years.
5. USC - 0.857: Top tier school at putting talent into the NFL with 531 all-time NFL draft picks, including 8 Heismans.
6. Notre Dame - 0.832: While Notre Dame has not stood atop college football in some time, they are still one of the most historically successful programs in history with 11 national titles and as many NFL draft picks as USC.
7. Georgia - 0.746: Successfully vaulted into the upper echelon of college football programs over the last several years, including a downright ridiculous 62-6 record and 2 national titles over the last 5 years.
8. Texas - 0.729: Are they back? Texas might just be back under Steve Sarkisian. They have been a consistent contender for decades despite the recent down years post Mack Brown, including a 12-2 record last season and finishing in the top 5.
9. LSU - 0.689: While LSU has not been as consistent as Alabama or had the peak of Georgia, their peaks almost always result in either a Heisman (2 in the last 5 years) or a national championship (3 in the last 21 years).
10. Clemson - 0.685: Clemson has certainly tiered up over the last 10 years, boasting a 119-20 record and multiple national titles under Dabo Swinney.
11. Nebraska - 0.681: Tumbling down this list over the last 20 years (136-113) and especially over the last 5 (20-36), Nebraska is a shell of itself but still has that historical pedigree to keep the program barely in the S Tier.
12. Penn State - 0.656: Consistently above average, but rarely ever reaching the pinnacle of college football with only 2 national championships and 1 Heisman trophy all-time. Penn State is anchored by the 930 all-time wins, consistent performance in bowl games (31-18-2), and putting players into the NFL (389 draft picks).
13. Tennessee - 0.654: Like Penn State with consistently above average performance, but with the benefit of 6 all-time national titles and 876 wins sneaks Tennessee into S Tier.

Just on the outside and looking in are programs like Pitt, Florida State, Florida, Texas A&M, Iowa, Washington, Miami (FL), and Auburn. Now while these programs did not meet the S Tier cut, the bottom of S Tier is extremely competitive. One or two great seasons from these programs could easily vault them into the bottom of S Tier, and it will be fun to see how this part of the program rankings changes over time.

Indiana: We also found it interesting that Indiana happens to be the lowest ranked Power 5 program. While schools like Vanderbilt and Kansas have also been notoriously bad, Indiana has even worse program pedigree than Rice and is only barely above their in-state MAC competition in Ball State.

Conclusion

Our analysis provides a data-driven approach to understanding and ranking college football blue bloods. By leveraging AI and data science, we have created a dynamic and objective methodology that evolves with the sport over time automatically as games are played. This approach not only honors the storied history of these programs but also adapts to their ongoing successes and challenges.

Look for this data to be appearing on our website soon, so you can dive in yourself and pick which program you may want to take control of in EA Sports College Football 25!